I thought about trying to solve the swimming pool problem, but I also wanted to relate probability to my daily (or almost daily) life. I started thinking about the nerves that build up before a ski race. You have to finish the race, and make it around every gate, so all of the racers ask themselves this question: What if I miss a gate?
I then started thinking, what is the probability that I will actually miss a gate in a given race?
One particular course that I have raced on has 40 total gates, alternating red and blue. On any given gate, there are two options: I can either make the gate, or miss it. So, the probability of me missing a gate is (1/2)(to the 40th power). (*I don't know how to do the formatting on here). So really, I shouldn't be that worried about missing a gate.
It is interesting to me how skewed our perception of probability is. We think we know, and we worry about things, but the numbers show us that the reality really isn't that scary!
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